In 2006, House Democrats got to an even 30 seat gain by pulling off an upset in a December Texas runoff. This year, their hopes of gaining one more seat are riding on a Louisiana race that has been anything but cordial. The outcome will depend as much upon the impact of negative ads as it will upon each party’s ground game. Read on
With five days to go, the National Republican Congressional Committee looks less like a strategic command center and more like a bankrupt investment firm that can’t find anyone to bail out bad assets. But one place the NRCC is going for broke is western Pennsylvania, where 17-term Democratic Rep. Jack Murtha finds himself in an unexpectedly tough race. Read on
GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann has always been something of a lightning rod back home, but she may have just invited a thunderstorm overhead. House Editor David Wasserman explains why the race in the suburban Twin Cities-based 6th CD of Minnesota just got a whole lot more interesting.
House Editor David Wasserman releases ratings changes in two districts. New allegations against freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney move Florida’s 16th CD from the Lean Democratic column to the Lean Republican column. Additionally, Arizona GOP Rep. John Shadegg’s reelection race has become a very competitive fight, and he moves into our Lean Republican column as well. Read on
Saturday’s Louisiana primaries – originally scheduled for September but delayed by Hurricane Gustav – produced competitive runoffs in two districts. In the New Orleans-based 2nd CD, Democratic Rep. William Jefferson once again faces a tough runoff to retain his seat, this time while awaiting trial. Read on
If we have learned something from the past week, it’s that anything called a “bailout” is very dicey politics. A vote for the package is not looking like as much of a political risk to an incumbent as it was a few days ago, but the politics of the issue remain volatile. Read on
It’s make-or-break time for campaigns on the competitiveness bubble, and House Editor David Wasserman releases ratings changes in fifteen districts. Now that prospects of an Obama landslide have dimmed somewhat, some third-tier Democratic candidates in need of an “Obama wave” to put them over the top look less viable. Read on
There could be as many as six or seven truly competitive House races this year in Florida, and only one potentially competitive district in the state belongs to Democrats: freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney's marginal South Florida seat. But Republicans caught several useful breaks in Tuesday's primary results. Read on
