Virginia | District 11

Seven-term GOP Rep. Tom Davis, former NRCC chair and a consummate political whiz, knew better than anyone else that his retirement would make this quintessentially suburban Fairfax County-based district extremely difficult for his party to hold. And even though there are plenty of vulnerable open seats for the GOP to defend this year, no other Republican open seat in the country is playing out quite like this one. For one thing, this contest is closer to the nation’s political nerve center than any other competitive race.

At the beginning of the election cycle, rumor had it that seven-term GOP Rep. Tom Davis would run for the Senate if GOP Sen. John Warner decided to retire, and that Davis’s wife, then-state Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, would in turn run for her husband’s House seat. But if that was ever the plan, it never materialized. First, Davis bowed out of the Senate race, admitting that a contest against Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner would have been difficult to win. Second, Devolites Davis lost reelection to the state senate in a high-profile, multi-million dollar November 2007 affair, a result that proved not even state legislative races were impervious to a poor national political environment for the GOP.

Now, the cast of characters in the race to succeed Davis includes three viable candidates. On the Republican side, businessman and political newcomer Keith Fimian has quietly raised one of the most impressive sums of any of his party’s non-incumbent House candidates. The Democratic race, which will be decided by a June 10th primary, has boiled down to two longtime Fairfax County political figures who detest one another, whether they would like to say so publicly or not: former Rep. Leslie Byrne and Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly.

Republicans face two major obstacles to keeping this seat in their column. The first is the political trend line of the district. Like many other densely populated and diversifying suburban areas, Fairfax County (which accounts for two thirds of the 11th CD’s vote) has swung hard to Democrats in recent years.

Between 2000 and 2004, President Bush’s margin in the district shrunk from seven points to one point. In 2006, Davis won a career reelection-low 55 percent of the vote despite vastly outspending his Democratic opponent, and few in either party doubt that likely Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will carry the district this fall. Rapid change has also registered at the local level: in 2002, 12 of Fairfax County’s 26 state legislators were Republicans. Today, just four in the delegation are members of the GOP, and Democrats control the lion’s share of county offices.

The other big problem for the GOP is that their candidate is an almost completely unknown quantity to voters while both Democratic contenders start out with high name recognition and proven vote-getting capability.

On paper, Fimian has an attractive profile. He grew up in a military family in Virginia Beach, earned a four year football scholarship to the College of William & Mary, and became a certified public accountant. After working seven years for the accounting firm KPMG, a substantial district employer, he founded U.S. Inspect, a large provider of residential and commercial property inspection services. He retains plenty of contacts within the vast Northern Virginia business community, and has won Davis’s blessing.

To the cash-strapped NRCC, Fimian’s biggest advantage is his campaign’s financial aptitude. Fimian began raising money behind the scenes before Davis announced retirement plans, and at the end of March, he reported raising $838,000 for the cycle, of which $325,000 was a personal loan. Still, that Fimian starts out not particularly well known and can expect little financial help from national Republicans is far from ideal. Even at his current fundraising clip, it will still be exceedingly difficult for Fimian to compete with the noisy presidential race for attention and define himself to voters on ultra-expensive Washington, D.C. network television.

In contrast, Byrne and Connolly have been highly visible figures in northern Virginia politics for some time. The outcome of their heated primary will likely impact the GOP’s willingness to play to keep the seat.

Byrne first won election to the House of Delegates in 1985, and captured the 11th CD seat upon its creation in 1992. Two years later, Davis defeated Byrne in the 1994 GOP wave. After a two year stint as Director of Consumer Affairs in the Clinton White House, Byrne defeated a Republican incumbent for the state senate in 1999. But Republicans controlled the redistricting process in 2000, and when Byrne found herself the victim of the remap, she abandoned her seat. In 2005, Byrne won the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor and nearly exacted revenge: she carried 55 percent of the vote in the 11th CD, but fell short with 49 percent of the vote statewide.

Connolly received his BA in Literature from Maryknoll College and his Masters in Public Administration from Harvard University, and moved to Fairfax County in 1979. After serving on the staff on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee for ten years, Connolly left for work in the private sector and won a seat on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors in 1995. In 2003, he was elected Board of Supervisors Chair, winning the county-wide position with 55 percent of the vote. In 2007, Connolly was reelected with 60 percent of the vote.

Insiders say that Byrne and Connolly have been on a political collision course for over two decades. For starters, Byrne’s 1994 defeat at the hands of Davis indirectly gave Connolly his start in elective politics: a year later, Connolly won Davis’s old seat on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. In addition, while both Byrne and Connolly project aggressive political personas, their styles diverge. Byrne’s areas emphasis over the years have been more traditionally Democratic concerns such as labor and women’s issues, while Connolly is more closely identified with more local concerns such as preservation of open space and transportation.

To say that there is no love lost between Byrne and Connolly is an understatement. Byrne’s backers view Connolly as “corporate” Democrat whose relationship with Davis has been too close. Specifically, Byrne has attacked Connolly in mailers as a war profiteer, citing his current employment in the community relations shop of SAIC, a large defense Northern Virginia-based defense contractor that has developed projects used in the Iraq War. On a personal level, Byrne’s allies view Connolly as an arrogant opportunist who embarked on a congressional campaign immediately after winning a second four-year term as board chairman. In a 2006 Washington Post article, Connolly sounded incredulous that newly announced Senate candidate Jim Webb had not yet given him a courtesy call. “Last time I checked, I was the top Democrat representing the largest jurisdiction in Virginia,” Connolly was quoted as saying. “Gee, maybe he ought to call.”

In the other camp, Connolly’s supporters view Byrne as an uncompromisingly liberal career politician with a mixed track record in general elections. They warn that she has a polarizing, abrasive personality that would alienate the district’s business community and put Democratic chances of winning the district at risk.

Connolly’s more recent high visibility in Fairfax County politics and considerable organization should give him an advantage in a relatively low-turnout primary. Although Byrne is the favorite of EMILY’s List, most anti-war activists, and Sen. Jim Webb, Connolly recently won the endorsement of Gov. Tim Kaine. A March survey of 500 likely voters taken by Lake Research Partners for Connolly’s campaign pegged Connolly’s support at 45 percent and Byrne’s at 25 percent. But a May survey of 400 likely voters taken by Global Strategy Group for Byrne’s campaign showed a much closer race, with Connolly leading Byrne 37 percent to 34 percent. At the end of March, Connolly posted $422,000 cash on hand to Byrne’s $238,000.

If in fact Connolly prevails in the primary, this race would probably move to the Lean Democratic column. But if Byrne pulls off an upset to win the Democratic nod, Republicans would have a hard time passing up the chance to paint her as a liberal ideologue and a very competitive race could ensue. In either case, Democrats will have the advantage of five months between June and November to heal any primary wounds. At the moment, this district represents one of Democrats’ absolute best opportunities to pick off a GOP open seat.