Minnesota | Senate

MN SENATE: Let the Recount Begin

November 13, 2008

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie announced yesterday members of the State Canvassing Board that will oversee the recount in the race between GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic satirist Al Franken. Coleman currently has a 206-vote lead.

By law, the Canvassing Board is comprised of Ritchie as its chairman, two state Supreme Court Justices and two district court judges. The board will meet Tuesday afternoon and the recount of nearly 3 million ballots will officially begin Wednesday at 74 locations across the state. Both campaigns intend to have lawyers and observers at each of the locations.

All ballots should be counted and the results transmitted to the state by December 5. The canvassing board will meet again beginning December 16 to hear challenges on individual ballots. Ritchie hopes that they will finish by December 19.

Minnesota uses optical scan machines in which voters fill in ovals on the ballot. Ballots likely to be questioned as those in which the ovals were marked with a check or “X or circled, and perhaps not read by the scanners. According to state law, voter intent is considered, meaning that if a voter circled the oval next to a candidate’s name, their intent was to vote for that candidate.

Of course, there is no guarantee that completing the recount will be the end of this long and hard-fought campaign, as either candidate could challenge the results in court, theoretically taking the recount into January.

Both campaigns have said they want a fair recount process in which all ballots are counted. At the same time, the Coleman campaign has raised numerous incidents of human error that, when corrected, have benefited Franken.

MN SENATE Update

November 2, 2008

In Minnesota, Coleman is locked in a statistical dead heat with Democratic satirist Al Franken, with both candidates polling in the mid-30s. Independence Party nominee and former U.S. Sen. Dean Barkley is pulling 18 percent of the vote in most recent polls.

Coleman made this race somewhat harder for himself by announcing in mid-October that he wouldn’t run any more negative ads. The NRSC has continued airing television spots attacking Franken, which in turn has allowed Democrats to accuse Coleman of breaking his pledge. The fact is that Coleman has no control over what the NRSC or other groups put on the air, yet is being held responsible for them. In other words, Coleman has put himself in a no win situation figuratively, and perhaps literally.

Franken also made the race more interesting lately by airing a television ad in which New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton talks about the importance of Democrats having 60 seats in the Senate and that Franken might be that 60th seat. Clinton got trounced here in the presidential caucus so it will be interesting to see whether her appeal motivates Democrats or fires up Republicans. That Coleman’s standing in the polls has shown some improvement in recent days suggests the latter.

Barkley’s presence in the race makes predicting the outcome very difficult, but his presence on the ballot means that regardless of whether Coleman or Franken finishes first, the victor might win with less than 40 percent of the vote.

MN SEN: A Flood of TV Ads Defines Race

September 22, 2008

Pity the voters of Minnesota. There was little doubt that this contest between GOP incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman and satirist Al Franken would be the marquee Senate race of the cycle, attracting national attention and tens of millions of dollars. And, the predictions that it would become one of the nastiest races in the country are proving true.

Even with this understanding, it is unlikely that voters were prepared for the barrage of television advertising in the race. By our count, there have been at least 40 different television ads aired since the beginning of July. While the Coleman and Franken campaigns are responsible for a vast majority of the ads, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as well as several third-party groups have joined the fray. So, pity Minnesota voters for there are still six weeks to go.

The start of the ad war marked a new chapter in what has been a very long campaign. Franken had spent much of last year convincing voters that he was a credible candidate who was well-versed on the issues and is taking the race seriously. By February, all indications were that he had succeeded and he even managed to drive his stiffest primary competitor, trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, from the race, essentially locking up the nomination.

At that point, though, the campaign turned difficult for Franken. There were revelations that he hadn’t carried workers compensation insurance on his employees in New York, which earned him a $25,000 fine. Then, it was reported that Franken did not pay income taxes in at least 17 states, something he blamed on his accountant and promised to rectify. Finally, an article that Franken wrote for Playboy in 2000 surfaced. The article was a fantasy about a virtual reality sexology lab in Minnesota complete with sexbots. Another old article about a skit that Franken wanted to write for “Saturday Night Live” in which CBS correspondent Leslie Stahl is drugged and raped also came to light, earning a stern rebuke from some Democratic women elected officials in Minnesota, who said that there is never anything funny about rape.

The cumulative effect of all these incidents was to raise new doubts about Franken’s viability as a candidate. Although Ciresi had exited the race, five candidates filed for the September 9 primary. None of the candidates was especially threatening to Franken’s chances of winning the nomination, but lawyer Priscilla Lord-Faris had some personal money to put into the race to air ads that rehashed all of Franken’s problems.

In one spot, Lord-Faris said, “Early on, I believed Al Franken could defeat Norm Coleman. Now, two years and millions of dollars later, it is clear that his record of pornography and degradation of women and minorities, and questionable financial transactions will be the source of blistering ads from the Republican attack machine. I represent Minnesota values as a teacher, volunteer, and advocate. September 9th, I ask you for your vote in the DFL primary."

As it turned out, Lord-Faris provided Republicans with the ammunition they needed to attack Franken. Coleman’s campaign even used some footage from her ads as third-party validation of the charges.

Franken won the nomination with 65 percent, but the fact that nearly a third of Democratic primary voters opted for another candidate—Lord-Faris took 30 percent of the vote—is a potentially troubling sign for him.

Still, the primary was almost a side bar to the main event between Franken and Coleman. The flood of television ads, which began in early July, looks much like a tennis match with the players volleying the ball back and forth at increasing speeds and ferocity. It is not an exaggeration to say that rarely a day goes by without one of the campaigns or campaign committees releasing a new spot.

Franken began the ad war with a spot in which he essentially blames former members of Congress-turned-lobbyists for high gas prices. In the spot, he promises “In Washington, I'll fight for a new law to prevent Members of Congress from ever becoming lobbyists.”

It was Coleman’s first ad of the summer, though, that set the scene and became the first thread of a theme. The spot takes place in a bowling alley as various voters say:

"If there's one thing about Norm Coleman, he gets things done."
"Hey, he brought hockey back."
"He increased college Pell Grants."
"He brought hockey back."
"He's helping us get energy independent with exploration, wind and renewables."
"He brought hockey back."
"And his investigations saved us billions."
"And he brought hockey back."
COLEMAN: "I'm Norm Coleman and I approve this message."
VOTER: "And he brought hockey back."

One of these “various voters” has become known as “Joe Bowler” and has starred in several more Coleman spots, including the first hard negative ad against Franken. In that spot, Joe Bowler says, “The guys and I have been talking. Now we've read all this stuff about Al Franken, you know, not paying taxes, going without insurance for his employees, foul-mouthed attacks on anyone he disagrees with, tasteless sexist jokes, and writing all that juicy porn. And, we decided, we're running for U.S. Senate. Why not? We're just as qualified as Al Franken! And we're better bowlers."

Franken responded with an ad in which he accused Coleman of resorting to attacking his work as a comedian and satirist to hide his own record. The spot goes on to say that Coleman supported “George Bush’s war in Iraq” and takes millions in contributions from oil companies and other special interests. This ad also marked the first time that Franken expresses some regret about some of the jokes he’s told. A subsequent ad also accused Coleman of siding with President Bush on the economy, energy, and privatizing Social Security. Franken’s campaign also tried to make the most of Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens’ indictment on charges of corruption by airing ads about three fishing trips the incumbent took to Alaska with Stevens.

Coleman has kept up his attacks on Franken for failing to pay taxes and carry workers compensation insurance, using Franken’s own words against him. One ad features footage of Franken on the campaign trail saying, “I love corporations that play by the rules. And we have to make them play by the rules."

The Franken campaign’s response to this ad includes an admission of making mistakes before taking aim at Coleman over the room he rents on Capitol Hill for $600 a month. According to the script, an announcer says: "Al Franken. He gave speeches across the country. Instead of paying taxes in the states where he spoke, he overpaid taxes to the state where he lived. It was an honest mistake. And Norm Coleman? Coleman is being investigated for paying only six hundred dollars a month rent to live in a million dollar DC home owned by a Washington insider connected to powerful lobbyists. And it gets even worse. Stay tuned for more."

Democrats have made much of Coleman’s living arrangements. He rents a basement room in a Capitol Hill townhouse owned by a friend and political consultant, and Democrats allege that $600 is well below prevailing market rates. While the statement that Coleman is under investigation is a stretch, the spot was correct in its claim that things would get “even worse.” Franken undoubtedly meant that the Coleman story would get worse. Instead, it turns out that he could well have meant the tone of the next round of advertising.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched its first television ad September 2 and followed up with a second spot six days later. Both focused on Iraq. In the second ad, an announcer says: "It's been five years since the invasion of Iraq. And Norm Coleman still has his head in the sand. Still supports George Bush's war."
REPORTER: "Based on what you know now, was your support for the war then wrong?" COLEMAN: "Uhh. No. No. No."
ANNCR: "After six hundred billion dollars and thousands of Americans dead and wounded. Senator Coleman, time's up.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee joined the fray with an ad that attacked Franken for opposing the Medicare prescription drug benefit. A subsequent ad that went on the air today addresses Franken’s fitness for office.

At this point, things turned truly ugly. The Coleman campaign has focused their efforts over the last couple of weeks on Franken’s temperament. In an ad, entitled “Angry Al” that features footage of Franken in various settings, Coleman says: “I’m Norm Coleman and I approved this message because I thought it was important for you to see it.”
Screen Text: “Does Al Franken have the temperament to be U.S. Senator?”
Franken: “You are wrong and you have to apologize, man.”
Screen Text: “You are wrong and you have to apologize, man.” Republican National Convention, 2004
Franken: “How [bleep] shameless these people are. These people are so [bleep] shameless.”
Screen Text: “@#!$% shameless.” “So @#!$% shameless.” Howard Dean Fundraiser, 09/2003
Franken: “Bull [bleep], that is such baloney.”
Screen Text: “Bull @%!$, that is such baloney!” The Connecticut Forum, 05/2004
Franken: “I [bleep] hate those right wing mother [bleep].”
Screen Text: “I #$%&! hate those right wing mother $%^$@” Franken Book, “Lies (And the Lying Liars Who Tell Them)” 2003
Franken: “I’m mean sometimes.”
Screen Text: “I’m mean sometimes.” Today Show, 03/2004
Franken: “You are wrong and you have to apologize, man.”
Screen Text: Al Franken. Reckless. Ridiculous. Wrong.

This spot launched another intense volley. In his response ad, Franken says: "I'm sure you've seen Norm Coleman's ad showing clips of me in some pretty, well, passionate moments. Look, I'm not a politician - I guess I get outraged. And sometimes I've gone too far. But my question is: with the price of gas and groceries and health care crushing Minnesota families, and Washington too busy taking care of the special interests to help - why isn't Norm Coleman outraged?”

Coleman’s campaign answered with this ad in which the incumbent says: “Al Franken talks about outrage. But there’s a difference between outrage and being out of control. People who are out of control can’t get things done. Working together is how we kept the Ford plant open, rebuilt a bridge and uncovered billions in Medicare fraud. And if we keep working together, we can lower gas prices, crack down on corporate greed, fix the health care mess. I’m Norm Coleman. I approve this message because outrage isn’t leadership. It’s what you do.”

If Franken has made numerous references to “mistakes” and being “passionate” in his ads, Coleman has also used advertising to attempt to inoculate himself against Democrats’ attacks. In a spot called “What to Expect,” Coleman says: "Here are some things you are probably going to see some more of from the other side. First they'll show you a crummy picture. Bad hair day. Then they'll play some scary music. They'll say I'm in the pocket of lobbyists, of special interests, but I fought for ethics reforms to restore trust in Congress. They'll say I'm a rubber stamp for George Bush even though the Washington Post has ranked me as one of the most independent Senators. I'm Norm Coleman and I approved this message because I just thought you should be prepared. Ouch, where'd they get that?"

The DSCC then launched one of the tougher spots of the cycle we’ve seen in any Senate race.

NANCY ANDERSON: "We're Claremont and Nancy Anderson and we live in Hoffman, Minnesota. We're the parents of Major Stuart M. Anderson. On CNN, I see a helicopter crash. And at 10:30 that night, we got... the army came to our house."
CLAREMONT ANDERSON: "You always figure that your sons and daughters would bury you -- you don't have to bury them."
NANCY: "I don't blame the army for our son's death. I just blame the bad policies on President Bush, Norm Coleman, who voted for this."
CLAREMONT: "I have no faith in Norm Coleman. He has no ability to make up his own mind." NANCY: "If Norm Coleman would have stood up to the President and said this is not a good idea, maybe he would have listened."
CLAREMONT: "He's nothing more than a yes man. We're proud of Stuart, but he's still gone." CLAREMONT: "Norm's gotta go. He's gotta go."

The ad is extremely powerful. It’s impossible not to feel for the Andersons, whose grief is so palpable. At the same time, one has to wonder if the ad doesn’t go just one step too far in blaming Coleman for Stuart Anderson’s death. While the Andersons clearly feel he is culpable on some level, will voters, a vast majority of who don’t have such an emotional connection to the war, find it credible?

Third-party groups are also advertising in the race. The Coalition for a Democratic Workplace and the Employee Freedom Action Committee have both run ads criticizing Franken for his support of the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for unions to organize by eliminating the secret ballot in workplaces and replacing it with cards that employees could sign if they want to unionize. Americans for Job Security has aired a spot criticizing Franken on his positions on economic issues, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has put up a spot attacking Franken on taxes.

There have been positive moments in the television advertising. Coleman has aired spots featuring constituents crediting him with sponsoring the Conquer Childhood Cancer Act, as well as thanking him for his help with an international adoption and securing Social Security benefits.

Franken’s positive ads have included a man who thanks the Democrat for raising money to retrofit soldiers’ helmets to make them safer. Franken also narrates a touching spot about appreciating the importance of Social Security after learning that his mother-in-law depended on it after her husband died, leaving her with five small children.

And, although it has gotten lost in the barrage of ads, both candidates try and talk about issues. Franken has proposed a $5,000 per student tax credit that can be used for post-secondary education and taken over four years. Families with incomes of up to $200,000 would be eligible. Franken would pay for it by allowing tax cuts for those earning over $1 million to expire. He has also offered a proposal to help middle class families with tax credits to help defray the cost of child and elder care, an expanded family leave policy, and 401(U), a new type of retirement account. Finally, his energy plan includes making commodities trading more transparent to stop speculators, releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and expansion of the Weatherization Assistance Program.

Coleman is running on an eight-point plan that calls for making the 2001 tax cuts permanent, cutting waste and fraud in government, developing alternative energy sources and increasing domestic drilling for oil and gas, providing more Americans with health care, becoming more competitive in the global marketplace, protecting the environment, securing the borders, and achieving peace through strength.

The two most recent credible public polls show a tight general election. A University of Connecticut poll for Minnesota Public Radio taken before the primary (August 7-17 of 763 likely voters) showed Franken leading Coleman by a point, 41 percent to 40 percent. Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley took 8 percent. Coleman’s job ratings were 46-percent approve to 42-percent disapprove.

A Princeton Survey Research poll for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (September 10-12 of 1,106 likely voters) gave Coleman a four-point edge, 41 percent to 37 percent for Franken and 13 percent for Barkley. Coleman’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 47 percent to 45 percent, while Franken’s were 40 percent to 46 percent.

While both parties agree that this is a close race, they look at it from very different perspectives. Republicans argue that they have the upper hand, pointing to Franken’s high negatives and his multiple acknowledgements in television ads of mistakes. GOP strategists also feel that they have Franken in a position in which he is responding to their message. Finally, they contend that Barkley’s presence in the race presents a significant problem for Franken because a voter who wants to cast their ballot for change has two choices in the race—Franken and Barkley—and that these voters were never in Coleman’s column.

Some Democrats express surprise that Franken is doing as well as he is considering the negative press he’s gotten surrounding his taxes, failure to pay workers compensation insurance and past statements and writings. They say that it is solid evidence that this race is about Coleman as much as it is about their candidate, and point to the success they’ve had raising the incumbent’s negatives. And, while Democratic operatives acknowledge that Barkley is hurting Franken today, they believe that this is an issue they can address.

How Democrats address the Barkley issue is unclear, but he is a serious candidate. Barkley, 58, made his first run for office in 1992. He ran in the 6th congressional district as an independent and took 16 percent of the vote. He founded the Independence Party after that race, and ran for the Senate under the party’s banner in 1996, taking 7 percent of the vote. He managed Jesse Ventura’s successful gubernatorial campaign in 1998 and worked in his administration on strategic and long-range planning. After Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone’s death in 2002, Ventura appointed Barkley to fulfill the remaining 52 days of Wellstone’s Senate term. Barkley left the Senate in 2003 and he went on to manage independent candidate Kinky Friedman’s gubernatorial campaign in Texas in 2006; Friedman finished fourth with 12 percent.

Barkley decided to enter the Senate race after Ventura spent weeks toying with the idea of running, only to decide not to just hours before filing closed.

If Democrats are pleased that they’ve been able to spike Coleman’s unfavorable ratings, they should also be concerned about Franken’s, which are higher. If the goal was to make voters question and dislike both candidates, then Democrats have succeeded. But, if Democrats hope to make Coleman less likable than Franken, that’s probably not a realistic goal.

At this point, it would seem that Coleman goes into the final six weeks in slightly better shape than Franken. Not only does the Democrat have high negatives, but he also should be concerned about the 35 percent of Democrats who voted for another candidate in the primary. These are voters he probably can’t win over and who are likely to look to Barkley. And, there is some evidence in the polling that Franken’s support among women is soft.

Ultimately, most races end up being about the incumbent. This one, though, seems to be more about Franken and the outcome of the race may come down to two things: temperament and trust. Republicans are pounding away on the question of whether Franken has the temperament to serve in the “world’s greatest deliberative body,” a sign that it must be working. And, voters need to decide whether they trust Franken. Republicans, and even Franken himself, keep giving voters reasons to question whether they can trust him.

This race is still a Toss Up, but Coleman appears to have a lead within the margin of error. Given Gopher State voters’ proclivity for splitting their tickets, anything can happen here, but we’d rather be in Coleman’s shoes today than in Franken’s.

MN SEN Update

March 20, 2008

Democratic lawyer Mike Ciresi's decision last week to abandon his quest for the Senate nomination all but guarantees that comedian Al Franken will win the right to take on GOP Sen. Norm Coleman in November. And both sides have reason to be happy about the turn of events.

The reasons for Franken's happiness are fairly obvious. He no longer has to worry about winning the endorsement at the party's convention in June or the possibility that a heated contest for the endorsement might produce a primary fight in September, pledges to avoid such a primary notwithstanding. While University of St. Thomas professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer remains in the race and does have a committed following among party activists, he stood to benefit much more from a three-way battle for the nod in which he would probably end up playing kingmaker than from a one-on-one contest with the better known and better funded Franken.

Although Franken will still need to get his supporters to the convention and win the endorsement by a comfortable margin, that effort won't be nearly as expensive. Television advertising was becoming a tool in the race as Franken and Ciresi sought to convince prospective convention delegates that he was the stronger candidate against Coleman in the general election. Expensive media buys can now be avoided. The real upside of Ciresi's exit from the race for Franken is that he can now turn his attention to Coleman.

As for Coleman, he got the opponent he wanted in Franken. Republican strategists confirm the conventional wisdom that Franken's books, transcripts of his radio show and even his appearances on the stump provide a treasure trove of opportunities for them. One strategist noted that the challenge will be cherry picking the right combination of arguments to build a case against Franken, noting that there is so much to choose from that the temptation to try to use it all will be hard to resist.

Certainly, Coleman would have preferred the general election to start in June. The earlier start means a more expensive and prolonged race in a state that will be targeted by both parties in the presidential contest. It seems, though, that Coleman is getting some unsolicited help from The American Future Fund, a 501(c)(4) group that went on the air in Minnesota yesterday with a 30-second ad. According to the script: "When the unthinkable happened...Senator Norm Coleman teamed with Amy Klobuchar to secure $250 million to rebuild the 35W Bridge. Coleman has worked with Republicans and Democrats to make college more affordable...Expand opportunities for our soldiers and National Guard returning home. And crack down on predatory lenders. An independent voice for Minnesota. Norm Coleman. Call Norm Coleman and thank him for his agenda for Minnesota."

Franken went on the air in mid-January with two ads. The first featured Mrs. Molin, who taught Franken in elementary school. In the ad, Molin said, "So I read about this man running for U.S. Senate. And I thought ... that's the Alan Franken I taught in St. Louis Park. ... Alan was a hard worker ... and he went on to graduate from Harvard. He was funny too ... I guess that's why he became a comedian."
FRANKEN: "I was really more of a satirist."
MOLIN: "Okay, Alan ... You see, he's also written six books. And hosted a radio show on public policy. He's been married to Franni for 32 years and they have two grown kids ... And you know, he's visited our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan four times. In the Senate, he'll work to make college affordable... fight for universal healthcare... and end the war in Iraq...."
FRANKEN: "I'm Al.... an Franken and I approved this message because I'm serious about fighting for Minnesota families."

Franken narrated the second spot, "I'm running for that kid in Mankato who sells his plasma to pay for college. For the grandmother in intensive care because she couldn't afford medicine. And for the people who tell me the cost of healthcare is ripping apart their lives. I'm running for families ... like the ones I grew up with here in St. Louis Park. I'm Al Franken. The drug companies, the insurance companies and special interests have gotten their way for far too long in Washington. I approved this message because I'm serious about fighting for you."

With these ads, Franken took one of the challenges he faces in this race head on; convincing voters that a comedian--or satirist, as he prefers--can be serious enough and has the gravitas to serve in the United States Senate. The tag line says it all, " I approved this message because I'm serious about..."
In some ways, these spots marked a turning point in the way national Democratic strategists look at Franken. Initially, they were concerned that he wouldn't run a serious campaign--in both senses of the word. First that the campaign wouldn't be well-run and organized and second, that Franken as a candidate would lack discipline on the stump, turning discussions of serious policy issues like the war into mini-monologues that relied on over-the-top language to get a reaction from voters. Instead, Franken has proven that he understands and can practice "serious" in all its forms. This is not to say that Franken has stopped cracking jokes on the campaign trail; they just tend to be less controversial and biting than some of the ones he used early in the campaign.

Both Coleman and Franken are skilled fundraisers. As of December 31 of last year, Coleman had raised about $10.5 million for the cycle, while spending $4.5 million and finishing the year with $6 million in the bank. Franken took in just under $7.2 million in 2007. He spent $4.1 million and had a cash-on-hand balance of $3.1 million. Franken's relatively high burn rate can be attributed to the campaign's reliance on telemarketing to raise money.

The most recent public poll in this race is deceiving. The Minnesota Public Radio survey (January 20-27 of 917 adults) had Franken ahead of Coleman by three points, 43 percent to 40 percent. Coleman's job ratings, though, were 50-percent strongly/somewhat approve to 34-percent somewhat/strongly disapprove. There wasn't any factor that could really account for Franken's lead. His television ads had only been on the air for a few days and the two candidates hadn't engaged each other on any issue. However, the poll relied on a sample of adults, as opposed to likely voters, and it oversampled Democrats (or undersampled independents and Republicans, depending on one's point of view) by seven or eight points. The bottom line is that this is a close race, but it seems highly unlikely that Coleman is trailing.

There is nothing more difficult than changing the rating of a race in the aftermath of a flawed poll like the Minnesota Public Radio survey. However, given Ciresi's exit from the race, Franken's ability to be a serious candidate and to raise money, and the overall political environment that continues to work against Republicans, all combine to produce a race that really doesn't lean in Coleman's favor but is too close to call. It moves to the Toss Up column.